NEW DELHI: Even as the current political situation in
Rajasthan is being compared with Madhya Pradesh and
Karnataka where
Congress governments made way for BJP, the saffron party faces heavier odds in the desert state with a more daunting numbers gap.
Unlike Madhya Pradesh, the gap between Congress and BJP in Rajasthan is big and has grown after
Ashok Gehlot, seen as an astute political player, took over as CM.
After having finished just short of the majority mark, Congress acquired numbers by engineering, much to
Mayawati’s chagrin, merger of the BSP MLAs. Gehlot now boasts of the support of 107 Congress MLAs besides 13 Independents, two Bharatiya Tribal Party members and one belonging to RLD.
In a crunch situation, he will get the support of the two CPM MLAs, taking his tally to 125. What, however, is not so easily assessed is the likely impact of significant desertions if led by Sachin Pilot. This might unsettle a seemingly solid castle if MLAs feel that rebellion will be rewarded and a receptive Raj Bhawan allow a rival formation to take a floor test. The odds remain steep and BJP also needs to figure out how Pilot is to be accommodated, if at all, given former chief minister
Vasundhara Raje’s looming presence in state politics.
In Rajya Sabha elections, the two Congress candidates got the support of 123 members (one minister and one CPM MLA could not vote because of health reasons).On the other hand, BJP has 70 MLAs and enjoys the support of Nagaur MP Hanuman Prasad Beniwal’s three MLAs. Its two candidates got the support of 74 MLAs. If there is a crunch, Independents often break for the party likely to take the helm and switch sides though many of those in Rajasthan are said to be Gehlot loyalists who entered the fray as rebels with his tacit support. Besides, many believe that Gehlot played up the threat of cross-voting in RS polls only to corner Pilot and to show the leadership that he alone could be trusted to deliver the goods in Rajasthan.