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    Contentious India bad for investor confidence: Neerja Chowdhury

    Synopsis

    Neerja Chowdhury, Political Commentator, says for the economic well being and the prosperity of the country, BJP should think about toning down its rhetoric, especially of the kind we saw in Delhi in the runup to the election.

    Neerja Chowdhury-1200ETMarkets.com
    With AAP looking like it is set to win in Delhi, does it seem like the saffron wave is starting to recede in different states?
    Yes, that is true. In just over a year, the BJP has lost six states, if we start with the Hindi heartland of Rajasthan, Madhya Pradesh and Chhattisgarh, then Maharashtra, Jharkhand and now Aam Aadmi Party is all set to retain Delhi. Delhi is a half state but the importance of Delhi goes way beyond the seven Lok Sabha seats or the 70 Vidhan Sabha seats because it might determine the basis on which people may vote.

    There is a tendency of people to vote in the states towards parties other than the BJP even as the BJP won 303 Lok Sabha seats in the summer of 2019. So, wherever there is an alternative narrative, a clear leader face, people are looking at the alternative. Now, will the politics of bijli, pani, school and health be decisive? Even politicians and political parties tell you privately that even if you do work, in the ultimate analysis people get swayed by the cast factor, the religion factor, the emotional issues. BJP’s pre poll rhetoric narrative was all around the CAA, Shaheen Bagh, national security, Hindu-Muslim, India-Pakistan -- all emotion swaying issues. But Delhi seems to have withstood that. Delhi’s has triumphed and stuck to the basic issues and we will see more of that in the coming elections in the states and we will see the beginning of a new politics which focuses on the basics. The importance of Delhi is also because of that.

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    Let us see how Arvind Kejriwal moves on the national scene on the high table of the opposition parties and opposition leaders. Many implications will be there but I must say the BJP put up a very good fight about a month ago. Those tracking on a daily basis saw the BJP slump way down below its core vote bank but managed to pick itself up. Of course, it was a new low in terms of the language use, resorting to the language of goli not boli. That beyond a point became counterproductive for it. Through sheer hard work with its 70 ministers going to colonies, to people zones distributing the parchas. The well-oiled machinery comes into its own during elections. So, it does not look like a complete washout for the BJP. It is the Congress that has got squeezed out.

    Purely in terms of the numbers, how is it that they are adding up, is Delhi critical in terms of the count in Rajya Sabha as well as Lok Sabha for bills and policies and reforms to be pushed through because from a market perspective. that is all that matters.
    Delhi is of course the country’s capital. Its influence goes way beyond. It will influence the politics of other opposition parties. It may give an impetus to opposition unity in the coming election. Very important elections are coming up in Bihar this year, in West Bengal next year. Uttar Pradesh, Punjab lots of elections are coming up in the next two years.

    But as far as reforms are concerned, if the opposition is able to exercise a check, then it does have a bearing on the kind of policies that the BJP will be able to do or not do. Ultimately, it is the economy that is going to matter -- whether they are able to get a grip over the situation, whether they are able to generate a demand in the economy.

    So far analysts have not been very hopeful that this is going to happen despite Nirmala Sitharaman’s efforts through the budget. Ultimately, joblessness is going to hurt people. Farmers’ plight is going to hurt people and all this will have a bearing on the reforms that the government is able to undertake or not able to undertake.

    In the last few state elections, there was a slugfest and it has been a battle to the finish line. In contrast, Delhi seems to have been a no contention result. What does this really mean in terms of the power for the BJP going forward from here? Does it diminish at all, given that we do not have one singular party necessarily that has come up as strong national opposition but definitely more of a localised results?
    That is good news for the BJP. Had the Congress begun to revive, it would have become the centrepiece of a larger opposition. That is a danger signal for the BJP. If you have small parties gaining ground in the states, the BJP will be able to ride that because while the saffron party has competitors at the state level, it does not have a competitor at the national level. Even the Delhi people say we want Modi in Delhi -- the big Delhi and Kejriwal in the small Delhi (state) because Kejriwal has delivered. He is expected to do more. He won their confidence and so on. It is kind of leadership. BJP did not have any leader, no face to take on Kejriwal in Delhi. Amit Shah led the charge but neither Amit Shah nor Narendra Modi were going to be the CM and that was very clear to the people of Delhi.

    But coming back to the slugfest that you talked about, I have been covering politics for three to four decades. I do not remember ever the rhetoric going down to this level. It was very divisive and I don'tCon know if the BJP will introspect on this because if you have contentious India, a divisive politics of the kind we saw in recent days with the possibility of violence breaking out; if you have just injustice being felt by the minority community which is 200-million strong, then you do not give a sense of confidence to the investor to come and invest here.

    Investors would be very wary of a country with divisive politics and for the economic wellbeing and the prosperity of the country, BJP should think about toning down its rhetoric, especially of the kind we saw in Delhi in the runup to the election.



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    (What's moving Sensex and Nifty Track latest market news, stock tips and expert advice, on ETMarkets. Also, ETMarkets.com is now on Telegram. For fastest news alerts on financial markets, investment strategies and stocks alerts, subscribe to our Telegram feeds .)

    Download The Economic Times News App to get Daily Market Updates & Live Business News.

    Subscribe to The Economic Times Prime and read the Economic Times ePaper Online.and Sensex Today.

    Top Trending Stocks: SBI Share Price, Axis Bank Share Price, HDFC Bank Share Price, Infosys Share Price, Wipro Share Price, NTPC Share Price

    ...more
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