AAP victory in Delhi elections in the price, says Dalal Street

NEW DELHI: Early trends suggest AAP party is leading Delhi elections with 50 seats, with BJP trailing at 20. Congress was yet to open its account. The trends are marginally above Times Now-IPSOS exit poll estimates that had projected 44 seats for AAP.

Delhi elections are largely centered around domestic issues such as education, water, electricity and Mohalla clinics. Analysts said the financial markets were largely factoring in an AAP win, but investors would want to see the BJP fight, they said.

“Investor would surely compare BJP’s tally with 2015 numbers. Any substantial gains would be sentimentally positive,” said Deepak Jasani, Head Retail Research, HDFC Securities.

In 2015, BJP had bagged just three seats against AAP’s 67 seats. In that context, the trends have been good so far.

Jasani and other marketmen such as Sunil Jain of Nirmal Bang Securities and Umesh Mehta of Samco Securities, however, believe the outcome will not have any major bearing on the market. But political pundits feel the election result may hold cues on how the political drama unfolds over the next few years.

The national capital territory of Delhi has 3 seats in Rajya Sabha (out of 245 seats) and 7 constituencies out of 543 in Lok Sabha.

Political cues
Political Commentator Neerja Chowdhury said since Delhi is the country’s capital, its influence goes way beyond.

“It will influence the politics of other opposition parties. It may give an impetus to opposition unity in the coming election. The very important elections are down the road in Bihar this year, in West Bengal the next year, and Uttar Pradesh and Punjab in the next two years. On the reforms front, if the opposition is able to exercise a check, then it does have a bearing on policies that the BJP will be able to do or not do,” Chowdhury said.

Chowdhury noted that BJP’s poll narrative was all around the CAA and national security issues such as India-Pakistan. “If Dehli’s Janta has really triumph that and stuck to the basic issues, it will we see more of that in the coming elections in the states.”

With Jharkhand recently joining the growing list of states slipping out of BJP's rule, the BJP now governs only 35 per cent of the country's landmass in comparison to over 71 per cent during its peak in 2017 when it was in power in the entire Hindi-speaking heartland.