Congress, JD(S)' falling fortunes point to bumpy road ahead

The sharp decline in the vote share of the Congress and the JD(S) in Chikkaballapur Assembly segment is a pointer to the challenges the two parties are likely to face in the districts of Kolar, Chikkaballapur and Bengaluru Rural in future elections.
The region, known for silk, milk and vegetables, has always witnessed tough electoral battles between the Congress and the JD(S) in the Assembly and local body polls. The first ray of hope for the BJP came when BN Bache Gowda won the Chikkaballapur Lok Sabha seat recently, but in that case the factors were different. Besides, the seat had only three Assembly segments from Chikkaballapur district. It was therefore evident that it was difficult to replicate this success at the levels of Assembly segments and below.

In fact, when the former Congress MLA K Sudhakar was on the verge of switching to the BJP, political observers predicted doom as the BJP barely had any clout over voters here. Sections of locals in Kolar-Chikkaballapur say many a time the BJP did not field a candidate in some seats in the twin districts for want of candidates, and its candidates lost deposits. The party nevertheless trudged on hoping to hit pay dirt one day.

Between the Assembly polls of 2013 and 2018, the BJP’s vote share in Chikkaballapur seat had grown by less than a percentage point. Not just the statistics that presented a grim picture, but political analysts thought Sudhakar had probably displeased Vokkaligas by associating himself with a coup that dislodged a Vokkaliga chief minister. Sudhakar, nevertheless, took the plunge, and surprised analysts by polling 48.5% of votes, coming within kissing distance of his previous electoral performances. His win opened the account for the BJP in Chikkaballapur district.

The BJP surprisingly did not deploy the kind of ammunition it reserved for KR Pete in Mandya district for Chikkaballapur, which turned out to be an almost solo performance of Sudhakar. “The BJP, quite often, is short by about 10 seats, and this can be overcome by expanding the party base in Chikkaballapur, Kolar and Bengaluru Rural districts. I would, of course, require the party’s backing to do this,” Sudhakar told ET. Together, Kolar (six), Chikkaballapur (five) and Bengaluru Rural (four) districts account for 15 Assembly seats.

According to a retired bureaucrat from the Kolar region, the drop in the Congress vote share was only to be expected in Chikkaballapur seat as its sitting disqualified MLA was seeking re-election from a different party. The sharp drop in the JD(S) vote share is noteworthy because it shows Vokkaliga voters drifting away from the JD(S).

“Sections of the community probably did not like it when HD Kumaraswamy fielded son Nikhil from the Mandya Lok Sabha seat. That unhappiness has continued to reflect in the Chikkaballapur polling pattern,” said the person, who did not wish to be identified.