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    COVID-19: This week crucial in assessing next steps

    Synopsis

    As the number of coronavirus cases in India continues to rise, public health experts said the period starting April 8 will be crucial in assessing the impact of the nationwide lockdown on infections in the Indian population.

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    NEW DELHI: As the number of Covid-19 cases in India continues to rise, public health experts said the period starting April 8 will be crucial in assessing the impact of the nationwide lockdown on infections in the Indian population.

    “The cases being reported in the first two weeks of the lockdown are a mix of old and new cases since the incubation period for presenting with clinical symptoms can extend up to 14 days after infection,” said K Srinath Reddy, president of the Public Health Foundation of India. “It is only in the third week of lockdown as well as the first week thereafter that we will get a measure of the impact of lockdown on infectivity.”

    India has so far reported 3,577 cases, adding 472 cases in a day and 11 additional deaths from Saturday, as the country saw another record one-day spike in infections, according to health ministry data.

    “There will be new cases, but the doubling time is likely to be prolonged. Even after the lockdown is eased, we must maintain vigil through social distancing and personal protection measures,” Reddy said.

    According to Anant Bhan, a Pune-based researcher in global health and bioethics, the next few days will also help in framing the next policy decision on the lockdown.

    “We are in a phase where it’s been two weeks since international travel shut down, so all transmission is from within our borders. Data now and over the next week will reveal how successful the lockdown has been in keeping the spread in control. And if not, what steps we further need,” Bhan said.

    He said this will be an opportunity to reflect on how the country’s testing and health facilities have been ramped up during the first two weeks of the lockdown.

    “The infection spread and case numbers will, I think, decide the next policy decision about lockdown extension or a different strategy which might be more local in nature,” Bhan said.

    The lockdown is slated to end on April 14.

    The rate at which cases in India are doubling is currently 4.1 days. According to Lav Agarwal, joint secretary in the health ministry, if the additional cases reported due to the Tablighi Jamaat event had not taken place, then the doubling rate would have been 7.4 days.

    The health ministry has linked 30% of India’s coronavirus cases to a religious gathering of the Tablighi Jamaat, which took place in New Delhi from March 13 to 15.

    “The total number of positive cases linked to the event is at 1,023, spread across 17 states,” Agarwal had said.

    There’s been a spurt in cases in India over the past few days. While the 1,000th Covid-19 case was reported on March 29 – almost two months after the first case – it took only four days to add the next thousand cases and another two days to another thousand cases.

    Government officials said the “critical period is much longer” than two weeks as India is still on the climbing part of the curve.

    “If you see international studies, the experts say the critical period is much longer. Experts are contemplating 49 days now. The first 14 days have no meaning. It’s only if you break two cycles at a go, you are safe,” said a senior government official.

    The health ministry released an analysis of age profiles of Covid-19 patients in India on Saturday, suggesting a higher incidence among younger people.




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