Covid cases surge past 8,000 in city, but cases growing at a slower rate now - Hindustan Times
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Covid cases surge past 8,000 in city, but cases growing at a slower rate now

Hindustan Times, Gurugram | ByArchana Mishra, Gurugram
Jul 23, 2020 11:55 AM IST

With almost 2,780 cases reported in July alone, Gurugram continues to remain one of the worst-affected districts by Covid-19 in Haryana.

Gurugram witnessed at least 149 fresh cases being added to its tally on Wednesday taking the district’s total number of coronavirus infections to 8,127, according to the district health bulletin. Of the total cases, 1,099 are active while 6,910 have recovered.

A view of the empty Cyber Hub which is one of the most popular public spaces, owing to coronavirus concerns among the public, at Cyber City in Gurugram, India.(HT photo)
A view of the empty Cyber Hub which is one of the most popular public spaces, owing to coronavirus concerns among the public, at Cyber City in Gurugram, India.(HT photo)

With almost 2,780 cases reported in July alone, Gurugram continues to remain one of the worst-affected districts by Covid-19 in Haryana.

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In Haryana, 28,186 Covid cases have been confirmed so far, with at least 724 new cases emerging in the last 24 hours. Out of these, 21,697 have recovered while 6,117 are active cases. Gurugram’s share in the overall active cases is almost 18%, which has decreased from 50% as reported in June.

Gurugram, however, has shown a decline in the number of positive cases in July when compared to last month. At least 4,573 Covid-19 cases were reported in the district in June. The daily growth rate of cases has also come down from 12.6% (in May) to 2.6% (in June) and to 1.7% (in July).

Between June 30 and July 20, Gurugram’s positivity rate – the total number of positive cases compared to the overall testing – declined from 13.05% to around 8.48%. With antigen test being conducted in large numbers as compared to RT- PCR tests — which is the gold standard in detecting Covid cases — there has been overall dip in positive cases reported this month. Experts have cautioned that this could lead to a false sense of security.

Even going by findings of a recent serological survey for Covid antibody detection conducted on 454 people, at least 56 were tested positive, which is 12.3% positivity rate. If extrapolated to the 15 lakh population of the city (as per the 2011 census), the 12.3% translates to 1.85 lakh population who may have been infected by the SARS-CoV-2 virus. “It is too small a survey in Gurugram to comment on. The plan is to conduct 1,800 more antibody test to study the prevalence of the infection,” said a senior health department official.

Professor Rajib Dasgupta from the Centre of Social Medicine and Community Health, Jawaharlal Nehru University (JNU), said that repeated sero-surveys are required to track the time trends of prevalence as a single point prevalence is of limited relevance in case of Gurugram.

“The sero-positivity of Gurugram is about 12%. Assuming that the samples are taken from among the population residing in areas of high incidence or containment zones in the urban/peri-urban areas (as is being generally done), this is not very high. This is less than many other cities (in the earlier round) where it ranged between 15% and 30%, and, about 36% in Dharavi and 40% in Ahmedabad. Since IgG antibodies appear typically three weeks after the infection, this reflects the spread for the corresponding period, presumably, Unlock 1,” said Dasgupta.

The findings of the antibody survey can be easily co-related with the district administration’s predictions on the Covid-19 positive cases by July-end. The Covid-19 Health Facilities and Bed Management Report prepared in the first week of June stated that by July, nearly 1.5 lakh people will be infected with the SARS-CoV-2 virus based on which the city would require at least 18,000 beds for the Covid-19 patients with critical health condition.

The health department data, however, shows that currently only 145 patients from Gurugram are admitted in 40 hospitals of the city. “Presently, only 25% of the total allocated bed capacity has been utilised as most of the patients prefer home isolation. Out of the 1,099 active cases, 895 have been home isolated and 59 are in isolation centres,” said Vivek Kalia, nodal officer for Covid-19 hospital management.

Data shows that till June 30, when total number of active cases were 1,289, nearly 64.23% people were in home isolation. This increased to 78.62% by July 20, when the city had 1,048 active cases.

“It shows that those detected Covid-19 positive are preferring home isolation and easily getting cured. Through video calls, we are connected with the home isolated patients, who get counselled by mental health expert,” said Dr Virender Yadav, chief medical officer.

According to him, the rate at which patients are recovering from the illness has also improved, at 85.12%. “In the last one month, testing has drastically increased in the city. In the Large Outbreak Areas (LORs) with emerging Covid-19 clusters, more than 31,000 antigen tests have been conducted. Our focus is upon timely detection of cases to reduce the fatality rate,” said Yadav.

The fatality rate of the city in the last one week has come down to 1.45% from 1.50%. Two people have died in the last 24 hours, bringing the total number of the fatalities in the district to 118. The overall fatality count of the state is 372, which is almost 1.32%.

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